Northwest Vehicle Travel Slowing Down?
Plenty of national news stories have noted the recent nose-dive in driving all across the United States. Federal figures show that over the past year -- as gas prices spiked and the economy slumped -- total vehicle travel fell more 3 percent, a remarkable decline.
But it's a bit more surprising, perhaps, to find that there's been a decline in per-capita vehicle travel in the Northwest states -- Oregon, Idaho, and Washington -- that's has been underway for nearly a decade.
Take a look at the chart to the right. It shows vehicle travel from the Federal Highway Statistics reports, adjusted for population, from 1994 through 2007. And as you can see, per-person vehicle travel has been on the decline since 1999, back when gas prices were at historic lows. When 2008 data are released, I expect that we'll see even steeper declines.
To me, the interesting thing is that the falloff in per-person vehicle travel has been slow and steady: nothing big in any one year, and not enough to make headlines, but enough over time to make a difference in our per-person travel. In fact, the per-capita declines over the past few years have nearly offset population growth: total vehicle travel in the Northwest states was only a wee bit more in 2007 than it was in 2003.
Two quick caveats about the numbers.
First, VMT data tend to be a bit dicey, since they're based on modeling estimates from a relatively small set of samples -- basically, those "tube counters" you sometimes drive over on the highway.
And second, most of the decline is the result of Oregon's trends! Driving's dipped a bit in both Washington and Idaho, but Oregon has led the way, with a 9 percent decline in per-capita mileage between 1999 and 2007. This makes me wonder whether Oregon's doing something right -- or if the Federal data are simply a bit screwy!!
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