Oil Prices vs. Carbon Prices
It's hardly news at this point, but oil prices hit yet another new high yesterday. Adjusted for inflation, oil is now as expensive as it's ever been -- even more expensive than it was during the energy crunch of the late 1970s and early 1980s.
Of course, part of the reason for the rise in prices is the fall in the value of the dollar against other international currencies. When the dollar's worth less, it takes more US currency to buy a barrel of oil on the international markets. Still, energy prices are rising even in Europe, where the currency hasn't taken such a beating.
So, given rising prices, I'd expect energy demand to fall, at least a bit, leading to lower emissions. And under a carbon trading scheme, when emissions fall, then the price of carbon permits should fall too -- right??
Unfortunately, it may not work that way -- at least, not in the European emissions trading market.
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Political Junkie Redefined
How is it that even smart people can ignore a pile of evidence that contradicts their deeply-held beliefs. Why is it I get a rush when I'm making fun of a politician I don't agree with -- even if it's his flubs or quirks I'm mocking, not necessarily his ideas?
Apparently, there's a chemical reason for this.
According to the research of Drew Western, political partisans -- and especially the smart, well-informed ones -- not only feel better when their brains downplay contradictory political information, they actually get a little emotional "high" when the brain (unconsciously) rejects evidence that contradicts their deeply held political beliefs. In a series of brain scans of political partisans asked to consider contradictory statements by the politicians they supported, Western found that the brain reverted to the comfort zone of its long-held biases -- and doing so actually made people feel good.
From Westen's book, The Political Brain:
Once partisans had found a way to reason to false conclusions, not only did neural circuits involved in negative emotions turn off, but circuits involved in positive emotions turned on. The partisan brain didn't seem satisfied in just feeling better. It worked overtime to feel good, activating reward circuits that give partisans a jolt of positive reinforcement for their biased "reasoning." These reward circuits overlap substantially with those activated when drug addicts get their "fix," giving new meaning to the term political junkie. [emphasis added.]
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