Special Series
This Land: Measure 37's Impact on Oregon
In a Series
Property Polling and Punditry
Much as it pains me, Labor Day is just around the corner. The end of summer will mean the unofficial start of campaign season. And that, of course, means me ranting about property law in Oregon, specifically Measure 49, a ballot initiative that will trim back a few aspects of Measure 37.
But it's still summer, so let's do the fun stuff. The first published poll is out today, and it has Measure 49 ahead by 58 percent to 12 percent among likely voters. Support is a little stronger, but not drastically so, among Democrats and residents of the Portland metro region and of coastal areas. Full results are here (pdf), where you'll find some other interesting tidbits about Oregon politics too.
Now, lest Measure 49 supports start jubilating in the streets, it's worth mentioning that conventional wisdom says that a 58-12 margin before Labor Day really doesn't mean much. That's because ballot initiatives, unlike candidates, tend to start off with high support and then slowly erode until Election Day. Even the pollster, Mike Riley, cautions that 58 percent support is actually kind of soft. Okay, those are the caveats, but there is reason to believe that support for Measure 49 is likely to remain strong.
