Comments on: Some Basic Facts About Coal Exports

By: jason kinney

jason kinney — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 01:57:28 +0000

how long do you think ill have a job in the coal mine meaning do you yhink it will be a while

By: Steve Harrell

Steve Harrell — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 19:35:29 +0000

Love those charts; will make a .pdf of this for my Environment and Society in China class next time I teach it. When you say that "energy policy decisions in China will drive demand," this might be deceptive. Right now, about 71% of China's total energy use (for all purposes, not just power generation) comes from coal, and the announced goal is to reduce that to 60% in the next couple of decades. But it will be 60% of a larger total energy consumption, so the absolute amount of coal that China consumes is still expected to grow, despite the fact that China is putting great efforts into diversifying. So I think the bottom line is that China's demand is not about to go down, no matter how hard they try. Which might mean that Cherry Point and Longview could indeed operate at full capacity as long as the Powder River can feed them. If you want to learn more about coal in China, I highly recommend the China FAQswebsite produced by the World Resources Institute.

By: Neal Jacques, P.E.

Neal Jacques, P.E. — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 16:36:24 +0000

Happy to find the article above. I am preparing a talk for our local chapter of Washington Society of Professional Engineers to be presented in early January 2012. Will be visiting Longview right after xmas to talk with the planners and would be interested in any source help. I have extensive experience with constructing coal terminals so have a realistic background.

By: Zane Selvans

Zane Selvans — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 20:21:54 +0000

It's worth noting that the EIA makes no effort to ascertain the economic recoverability of US coal reserves. The often quoted "250 years" of reserves (which I suspect is the number which went into your global coal reserves pie chart) is only a statement of what we could, technically, dig out of the ground if cost were no object. The USGS, on the other hand, has been doing analyses of the economic recoverability of US coal reserves, and they paint a pretty different picture. The overwhelming majority of our economically recoverable reserves are in the Powder River Basin, and that coal is going to get more difficult/expensive to extract over time as we have to dig deeper and deeper to get at it. How much is available depends on how much you're willing to pay. Check out The 2009 National Coal Resource Assessment, especially Chapter D [PDF], which looks at overall economically recoverable reserves in all major US coal fields. For more detail on the behemoth -- Powder River -- see OFR 2008-1202. Figure 66 (depicting production cost vs. amount of coal produced) is particularly interesting.

By: Liz

Liz — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 19:06:24 +0000

Eric, this provides excellent national and international context. A great summation. Thank you!

By: canyonguy26

canyonguy26 — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 18:04:25 +0000

Typo…. Something that I have not seen in the analysis of future output…….

By: canyonguy26

canyonguy26 — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 18:03:28 +0000

I have seen something in these analysis of future output… What competition will do to other international mines. Especially, where better quality coal with a comparable price comes into play.

By: Erin

Erin — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 06:08:39 +0000

While potential Washington exports are the focus of this project (and of major importance), don't forget that most of that "total recoverable coal" in the US is in Alaska. Alaska has had little coal mining to date, but the dynamics of the Asian marked could change this quickly. A number of large and controversial coal mine proposals on the table right now, and the vast majority of any coal extracted would be shipped to Asia (Alaska consumes very little coal in state). The largest current proposal is 12 million metric tons/year, but the potential is much greater. For climate change, it's a huge potential issue. The nonprofit I work with has developed an extensive set of articles and analyses on Alaska coal, if anyone wants to learn more.

By: canyonguy26

canyonguy26 — Sat, 17 Dec 2011 00:36:02 +0000

I should have said, your export “graph” is based on maximum capacity if the Longview and Cherry Point Facility were built and run at full tilt.

I still liked the blog… Good job.

By: Bryan

Bryan — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 20:07:25 +0000

Eric very good piece.. I agree with Jason on the numbers, I doubt that either Longview or Cherry Point will ever export the tonnage that is being proposed, but your point is well taken. By your own numbers though, the arguements that jason and I have been making is that if coal isn’t exported from the states, coal will still be burned.