Updated: Gulf Oil Spill: A Timeline of the Estimates

How we got to 60 times the original estimate.

*** Updated based on new estimates published on June 21 ***

The image says it all, I think:

spill estimates

As has been remarked elsewhere, if the latest low-end estimate is accurate—that the leak is spewing approximately 2.5 million gallons per day—then the rupture is emitting as much oil about every 4 days as the Exxon Valdez did in total.

Here’s the timeline:

  • April 20: Deepwater Horizon explodes.
  • April 22: The leak is estimated at 1,000 barrels (42,000 gallons) per day.
  • April 28: The estimate is increased to 5,000 barrels (210,000 gallons) per day.
  • May 27: The estimate is increased to between 12,000 and 19,000 barrels (roughly 500,000 to 800,000 gallons) per day.
  • June 11: The estimate is increased to between 25,000 and 30,000 barrels (roughly 1 million and 1.3 million gallons) per day.
  • June 15: The estimate is increased to between 30,000 and 60,000 barrels (roughly 1.5 million and 2.5 million gallons) per day.
  • June 21: The estimate is increased to between 60,000 and 80,000 barrels (roughly 2.5 and 3.4 million gallons) per day.

Notes: My version of the timeline is drawn mainly from news media accounts. There appear to be several, slightly conflicting, versions of the timeline published in various places around the web. In particular, there’s some uncertainty about when the first estimate of 42,000 gallons (1,000 barrels) per day became part of the official record. My April 22 estimate comes from the Wall Street Journal; my April 28, May 27, June 11, and June 15 estimates are from the New York Times. Estimate for June 21 is from the NYT’s Dot Earth blog, here. It suggests that the real figure is probably even higher.

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  1. M Btok says:

    http://www.prisonplanet.com/criminal-investigation-of-bp-staged-oil-spill-vital-to-gulf-recovery.htmlAlex Jones & Aaron DykesPrison Planet.comMonday, June 21, 2010RELATED: States Need To Launch Criminal Investigation Into BP, Federal Government’s Role In Oil Spill Following the rise of sufficient indicators that BP knew about the conditions of its Gulf oil assets prior to the April 20 leak & explosion— and may have allowed the incident to occur, Alex Jones has called for criminal investigations of key figures at BP, inside the White House administration and elsewhere.Why did current CEO of BP Tony Hayward dump approximately one-third of his BP stocks before the oil crisis? Why did Goldman Sachs dump a hefty 44% of its BP stock prior to, particularly given that Peter Sutherland was formerly CEO of both BP and Goldman Sachs at the same time? What are the odds that former Vice-President Dick Cheney’s firm Halliburton would purchase a company which “focuses on oil spill prevention and blowout response,” just weeks before the so-called ‘biggest environmental crisis’ of all time would strike?These telling transactions at the highest levels of business, politics and finance coincidence very meaningfully with the multiple accounts from inside BP, the oil platforms in the Gulf, and the related lawyers that demonstrate a willful negligence towards the conditions of the oil assets which would later explode and spill. These telling transactions at the highest levels of business, politics and finance coincidence very meaningfully with the multiple accounts from inside BP. Thus, Alex Jones is urging activists and concerned citizens everywhere to take a proactive approach to dealing with the looming consequences of the massive oil leak that started 62 long days ago. He suggests calling on Governors and State Legislators ! Re: http://www.youtube.com/watchv=gNW0lkjTxAQ=player_embedded

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